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Gaming Guru  Deal Me In: And Faith says to Logic, "I'll jus' whup yo butt, sonny."5 March 2010
By Mark Pilarski Dear Mark: I have been going to casinos for years and have never seen these so called "winning streaks" you have written about. Not that I need proof, but I would sure like to see one. Bud C. How's this for a quick reply, Bud? I received your e-mail on February 11th, at 1:42 pm. I had some idea on how to respond, however, by happenstance, at approximately 3:30 pm EST on that same day, I get a call from a friend of mine, Tom, who happened to be in Las Vegas. Luckily, he wasn't tapped out and calling me to wire him some seed money for a poker room romp, but to share what was happening on a roulette table at Caesars Palace. Black had just appeared 23 times in a row. Immediately I had Tom e-mail me a photo with his iPhone, which I promptly forwarded to you. (Readers can view the display board at http://markpilarski.com/23row.html. Although the winning roulette number display only shows the results of the previous 17 spins, the photo was taken on the 23rd consecutive black.) Now a question for you, Bud. When a streak like this happens, which way would you bet on it? Tom's friend, Brian, who happened to be on the game, started betting an aggressive progression that red would eventually have to appear based on the "due factor," assumptions that don't necessarily happen over his short gambling timeline, and are not necessarily shared by the roulette wheel. His conviction regarding streaks in gambling was that after black appeared so many times, a red would have to pop up to self-correct that streak. So, after seven, eight, nine, ten black's in a row, his faith led him to the faulty conclusion that based on past performance, red was due; ergo, time to bet more. Brian, like many gamblers, doesn't realize that faith and results are different. One doesn't necessarily create the other. Brian witnessed a deviation in one direction (Black, B, B, B, B, B, B, B, B, etc.), so he believed that a reversal was going to occur to restore balance. Time and time again you'll see a guy like Brian who wagers more, and more, and more, because he KNOWS that this time red's going to show. Brian thought this form of betting to be foolproof because you have to win sooner or later. The problem is, it didn't work 23 successive times, each spin is an independent event, he didn't have an inexhaustible bankroll, and in any event, our friends who own the casinos would limit the maximum size of his wager. Say for instance Brian had jumped on red after the third black and started doubling his previous bet to recoup his loss. His 20th wager would have cost him $10,485,760, just to get his measly 10 bucks back. Had he been betting black all along, his ledger wouldn't have shown 10 million in the black either because the casino puts a ceiling on your win via the table max so you don't end up owning the joint. Yes, Caesars has some hefty table maximums, but I'm guessing he wasn't carrying that size of a bankroll, nor is the casino willing to part with that kind of loot to a $10 player. Gambling Wisdom of the Week: "A winning hand is not assured, Until proceeds are secured. So you may find you're out of scratch, By counting chickens ere they hatch." --Sumner A. Ingmark Deal Me In: Ah, sweet surrender26 February 2010
Dear Mark: I have been counseled that a "surrender" bet is a bet that favors the house in blackjack. I have played blackjack for a long time, and understand the basic strategy. It seems to me that in selected situations, a surrender move is an advantage. What is your opinion about surrendering? ... (read more)
Deal Me In: Maybe once in 800 hours of swift play, maybe not19 February 2010
Dear Mark: If these two games were to be played correctly, which is better to play, blackjack or video poker? I would argue that it is video poker, simply because it offers a large jackpot if you hit a royal, whereas blackjack doesn't. Donald B.
If you were to utilize expert play on ... (read more)
Deal Me In: Be one of the very few – use expert play12 February 2010
Dear Mark: I appreciate what you mean by distinguishing the good from the bad video poker pay tables, but you also say "expert play" to go along with those machines. Isn't picking the correct machine enough? Kenny F.
When writing about video poker pay tables or payback ... (read more)
Deal Me In: Naval names for table gamesDear Mark: I play a little craps and have noticed recently that in some casinos the tables have different sizes. Is there some house edge being worked here or is it just to allow more players around a table? Jack M. Casinos offer various dimensions of crap tables, Jack, but no specific size will affect the casino's built-in advantage on any particular bet. ... (read more)Deal Me In: Hone strategy to a razor's edgeDear Mark: The casino where I play once had a dozen 9/6 Jacks-or-better machines. Now they have just two. My first question is why do they take out the good paying machines? Is it because skilled players take advantage of them. As for these reduced value machines, how much am I now giving up from a 9/6 Jack-or-better to let's say an 8/5 machine? Eric H. ... (read more)Deal Me In: Cinco dos, adiosDear Mark: I've been reading your column recently on craps betting and I agree with you regarding keeping the house advantage below two percent. However, since my recent retirement I've had the opportunity to play 3-4 times per week, and what I have noticed is that it seems like the most consistent winners are the Don't side players laying odds. ... (read more)Deal Me In: Should you split tens in blackjack?Dear Mark: When my ex-girlfriend and I used to go to Vegas, every once in a while we would have someone at our blackjack table split tens. This used to drive my ex absolutely crazy and there were times when I thought that I actually saw steam come out of her ears when someone did that. So my question is, ... (read more)Deal Me In: Course of action can differ between casinosDear Mark: If you place a bet at a table game that is more than the permitted maximum, and neither you or the dealer notice, should they either A) pay you at the correct odds on the full (higher) amount, B) pay you on the permitted maximum and refund the rest, or C) pay you nothing and just refund ... (read more) |
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