Dear Mark,
When the dealer is showing a bust card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6),
how often does she
really bust? Dan A.
Never, as in "When I'm playing, they never bust," overstates it, Dan,
though
we've all had that feeling. But they do bust, as often as 43%
of the time
when a six is showing.
Success at blackjack, Dan, is based on how you play your hand against the
dealer's up card. The up card provides you with enough information to reliably
predict the most likely outcome of play against any dealer's hand, based on
the makeup of a standard deck of playing cards.
A multitude of computer studies have been done on the game of blackjack,
analyzing the correct strategy on playing your hand, against any given
dealer's up card.
Because the dealer plays by a set of strict house rules on when to stand
or
when to take a card, she must draw a card until she has a total of
17 or
more.
Based on computers crunching their diet of 1s and 0s, the dealer will
bust
more often when her upcard is a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, and she will
successfully
complete more hands when her up card is a 7, 8, 9 or a
10-value card (10,
J, Q, K) or an ace.
The following table, Dan, shows the dealer's likelihood of busting with
any
particular up card.
Percent of the time she'll bust:
|
2-
|
35%
|
|
3-
|
38%
|
|
4-
|
40%
|
|
5-
|
42%
|
|
6-
|
43%
|
|
7-
|
26%
|
|
8-
|
24%
|
|
9-
|
23%
|
|
10-value card
|
21%
|
|
Ace-
|
11%
|
Note, Dan, that the dealer will bust most often when she has a 5 or a 6
as
her up card, and she will bust the least frequently, approximately
11% of the
time, when her up card is an ace.
Generally speaking, basic strategy dictates it is to your advantage to
stand
down when the dealer's up card is a 2 through 6, then hope, wish
and pray, as
we all do, that your femme fatale of fate draws a
10-value card that makes
her bust. (Yes, I know there's a pun in
there somewhere, but I'm avoiding
it.) It also means that when the
dealer's up card is 7 through ace, she will
complete more of her
hands. In that situation, you will need to draw cards
up to a total
of 17 or more.
Dear Mark,
In blackjack, is it true that the biggest jump in the
casino edge is when
you move from one to two decks, and with each
additional deck, the house
edge is less dramatic? Sam B.
You are correct, Sam. It is always to your advantage to play against as
few
decks as possible. With respect to deck sizes, the casino edge
goes up
substantially as you go from 1 deck to 2, tapers off when you
go from 2 to 6
decks, and is negligible when you go from a 6 to
8-deck shoe.
|
Casino edge
|
|
Two decks
|
-0.35%
|
|
Four decks
|
-0.48%
|
|
Six decks
|
-0.48%
|
|
Eight decks
|
-0.56%
|
You can offset this casino advantage by finding player-friendly rules
where
surrender is allowed, as is doubling down after splitting
pairs, and
resplitting aces.
Improvement in your winning chance
|
Double after split
|
+0.14%
|
|
Early surrender
|
+0.70%
|
|
Late surrender
|
+0.06%
|
|
Resplit Aces
|
+0.14%
|
|
Double anytime
|
+0.24%
|
Or how about this gem I haven't seen in a blue moon: A natural paying 2
to
1. Your expected win rate goes up +2.3% with this beauty.
Bottom line: Smart players always know enough to take advantage of
favorable
playing conditions and to sniff out and shun the
unfavorable ones. Which
type of player are you? Unfair question, but
what the heck?
Gambling thought of the week: "The longer you expose yourself
to the casino
environment, the more susceptible you become to their
ploys." - Jerry L.
Patterson, Casino Gambling
