Dear Mark, How do they do it? My kids have taught me a coin-flipping game
called Mix or Match and are steering me toward bankruptcy. You bet on one of
three possible outcomes: Two Heads, Two Tails, or the Mix — one Head, one
Tail. You bet whatever amount you want (up to ten cents) on one of the outcomes,
and your opponent bets on another; winner takes all money wagered. You can also
bet on Any Match — whether Heads or Tails — and in that case, the wager
for the Mix is just half the Any Match bet, since there are two Matches possible
against one Mix. They're driving me nuts as well as broke, with no cheating
I can detect. How? Wing T. B.
Nice name. I once knew another guy named Wing who I used to ski the steep
and bumps with at Lake Tahoe. But like the casino, where danger lurks around
every corner, a freak accident on a bunny run sidelined Wing for years. He
went on to card counting somewhere in the Caribbean, I to another 12 years
of 100-day ski seasons. I sure miss those days of skiing every day, pitching
cardboard every night.
It's the Any Match bet, Wing, that is your downfall, or broken leg if you
will. You see two ways of winning with that wager and only one way with the
Mix bet, and, thinking you'll show the kids a thing or two, you frequently
bet on Any Match, putting up twice the silver that the kids risk. Right?
While there may seem to be only one chance for the Mix bettor to win, there
are really two chances — so the Any Match bettor is putting up twice the
cash
that the little con artist is risking when he (she?, they?) goes for Mix.
And since the odds of a Mix are really the same as the odds for Any Match,
and the Any Match bettor is paying off double half the time, it's a long
slippery slope for the latter toward insolvency.
Here are the possible outcomes of a flip:
1) Wing - Head / Kids - Head Matching Heads
2) Wing - Tail / Kids - Tail Matching Tails
3) Wing - Head / Kids - Tail Mix: Head-Tail
4) Wing - Tail / Kids - Head Mix: Tail-Head
Several street cons and bar bets turn on this same illusion — the overlooked
possible outcome. Now that you know the ruse, you can probably score some
few refreshments at your favorite watering hole. Better yet, bet em' they
can't spell Albuquerque. Most can't.
By the way, where do your kids go to school?
Dear Mark, Recently in the column, you mentioned that when playing video
poker you should always break the low pairs (2s - 10s) against any four-card
flush, straight flush, and three cards to a royal. Are you saying that in the
above case you should hold the high pairs — or is that a "duh... of course"?
Don P.
"Duh" questions for this column? Never, Don. Chalk this one up as
an
omission on my part.
Keep the high pair against a four-card flush, but discard it against a 4-card
inside straight flush or an open-ended straight flush.
As for what to do when you have both a high pair and three-card royal, many
experts advise you to hold the high pair. I lean towards keeping the 3-card
royal. Either way, the difference is minuscule.
Gambling quote of the week: This is where I should have quit, but some kind
of strange sensation built up in me, a kind of challenge to fate, a kind of
desire to give it a flick on the nose, or stick my tongue at it." Fyodor
Dostoevsky, The Gambler (1867)
