Dear Mark,
If dealt A, K, Q, J, of
hearts and a 10 of diamonds on a video poker machine, should I try for
the royal flush or stick with the straight? This happened to me recently
and I kept the straight, kicking myself ever since. How bad a move was
it? Patricia M.
Stop kicking yourself, Patricia, but you
did mess up.
When playing video poker, all experts
will discard certain cards to optimize the "expected value" (win
potential) of their hands. Herein lies the secret to winning at video
poker — or another way of saying it, playing perfect basic strategy.
So what do I mean by "expected value"?
Expected value is the average value of all the wins attainable (after
the discards are replaced), assuming that the optimum cards are retained
and each unique possible draw occurs. In your case, the Expected Value
of a 4-Card Royal was 19 and straight is just a 4.
By now, Patricia,
I suspect you think this expected value stuff isn't worth learning since
I've mentioned previously that there are 2,459,076 possible hands you
can be dealt in video poker. Not necessarily. In reality, there are only
35 workable combination of hands, from the naturally dealt royal flush
to that crummy hand where you would discard all five cards. learn them
and you'll lower the house edge to under one half of 1%.
My only solution at this time, Patricia,
is to tell you that every hand you are dealt has some value and
potential of winning money, with the expected value predetermined
accurately by past computer studies. Hopefully by summer's end I'll be
bringing those computer studies to a four-color, laminated chart form,
which will identify each of those 35 combinations. I'll make sure you,
and all the readers of this column, know when it's available.
Dear Mark,
I want to make some
decent sized wagers (10-20K) on a few games this upcoming football
season. Ideally, I would like to make them in Vegas, but that is not
really practical for me. I know there are various Internet offshore
books who will take bets via bank wire and telephone. I am willing to
risk the legal implications of this, 18 USC 1084 notwithstanding, but I
am worried about wiring $20,000 out of the country to some guy I've
never met except for 3 minutes on the telephone.
Do you know which of
these telebet books are reputable? Or not reputable? And how much do
they generally take in wagers? Is $20,000 a great deal to them?
Any
information that you care to share would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Arnold J.
Arnold, didn't you answer your own
question when you stated "I am worried about wiring $20,000 out of the
country to some guy I've never met except for 3 minutes on the
telephone?" I think you summed up your potential risk quite well.
Besides, as a syndicated columnist, it wouldn't be appropriate for me to
dole out illegal advice on how to best beat the Interstate Wire Act.
Finally, I've mentioned this once before
in a previous column, but I can't advise anyone to wire money thousands
of miles away to an unregulated, uncontrolled, and probably illegal
enterprise, give them a credit card and Social Security number, and hope
everything is square. Sorry, Arnold, no vote of confidence here.
