Dear Mark,
Every basic strategy
card, blackjack book, and yes, you, recommend splitting eights against a
dealer 10. Well, fear gets the better of me, and I depart from correct
play and just hit instead of splitting the pair. So what should I do
about a hand that always seems to haunt me? Hit, split or play the
hunch? Scott N.
You're right, Scott, eights against a 10
is a phantasmal hand that stalks most players like Marley's ghost.
As
my readers know, blackjack is a game where the proper hit, stand,
splitting and doubling decisions are necessary in order to cut the house
edge down to a minimum. These proper decisions are called basic strategy
and have been arrived at by computer simulations of millions of hands.
But fallacious logic tells you that
splitting this hand creates two losers. Seems every time you split those
eights you get, at best, two 10s. Then the dealer always has a nine or
10 in the hole, and bang, the jingling you hear is not Marley's forged
chains but all your money falling into the dealer's tray.
So what happens to the average player? He
starts deviating from basic strategy because FEAR sets in. The FEAR is
actually False Evidence Appearing Real. FEAR
camouflages the logic of computer studies. But according to basic
strategy, the proper move is to split 8s if the game you're playing
doesn't allow surrender. Why? Because you will lose more money in the
long run if you hit instead of splitting. Mathematically, when you just
hit the hand, you will lose $51 for every $100 wagered. However, if you
split, you will lose $44 for every $100 bet. A seven dollar difference
for every hundred dollars wagered.
Granted, Scott, it's a character
builder to come out of pocket with additional money, but the key behind
basic strategy is: Win more money not necessarily more hands.
Dear Mark,
I've been around
computers since 1978 and some folks even call me a computer genius. My
new project is to develop a hand-held computer I can conceal in my
pocket and try counting cards with much more accuracy. What are the
risks/consequences if caught with a hand-held computing device in my
possession in a casino? Anonymous
Dear Anonymous, allow me to
let Beavis and Butthead spell it out for you: "Just because you own a
computer doesn't mean you still can't be stupid."
Dear Mark,
I have been following
your advice and making casino bets that have less than a two percent
house advantage. I now consider myself a reformed player. My blockhead
brother on the other hand makes bets with no rhyme or reason. Since we
both play craps, show me why my pass line bet versus his favorite bet,
hardway sixes and eights, will always do better? Susan M.
Susan, by using a simple mathematical
formula, I will prove that by playing smart, your play will generally
outperform your brother's.
Let's first analyze your action, Susan. A
pass line bet, with no odds, has a house advantage of 1.4%. With a $5
wager and 50 playing decisions per hour, your theoretical loss (all bets
lose over time) is $5 X 50 X 0.014, or $3.50 per hour. Relatively cheap
entertainment. In comparison, your brother's bet, the hard six or eight,
has a house advantage of 9.1%. The damage to his bankroll would be $5 X
50 X 0.091, or $22.75 in the same amount of time. Multiply that by 15
hours of play and you've got a sniveling, unhappy camper with a long car
ride home.
Sibling rivalry aside, glad to see you're
reforming your play. Now let's convert the blockhead.
